← 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1222
· median 1222
· range 1222–1222
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1225
Q3 1387
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
